Causation versus Correlation

And How We Mix Them Up

Hello ♡,

There are often two types of pain we find ourselves in.

The first is the painful thing itself. It could be anything. The job you took sucks, or they fired you. The person you trusted betrayed you. The school you moved cities to get your child into has been a terrible experience. The scary medical diagnosis, you didn’t see coming….the list of possibilities goes on. The first thing is very painful, whatever it is. It creates suffering.

(Read more about this idea from different but related lens here too - clean vs dirty pain).

But then there is a sneaky secondary pain. This is when we interpret, make narratives around, our primary pain. And let me say, our interpretations are often quite skewed. We are not always the most trustworthy interpreters when we are in pain and asking, “why?” I can say from years of sitting with pain, we are far too often far too hard on ourselves. And unfairly so. We also tend to blame ourselves for things that we can’t even control. Why do we do this? Well, there are many reasons likely but one in particular is that it is a lot less scary to blame yourself than to feel how very little control you actually have when suffering knocks on your door.

I was talking to someone I love recently about a very hard thing they are carrying. And this brilliant wonderful person then proceeded to blame themselves for the struggle they are in. Their blame was big and sweeping (as shame usually is), and I must say imaginative. There was just no way they could have actually caused the suffering they are in. But I watched as they put themselves up on the stand and then pronounced guilty for their suffering. And I watched the secondary pain take over and the tears fall.

I moved in. I actually stepped closer. I couldn’t help myself. I couldn’t stand to let this person blame themselves unfairly. I was there for those decisions, they were wise and good with the knowledge known at the time. Very good.

I said, “There is no way this is your fault. I know you are hurting, that is totally valid. But you didn’t make this happen. That just isn’t true.”

Now I know there are times when our decisions create our struggles, of course. But that is not what I am talking about here. I am referring to the revisionist history that happens when we unexpectedly find ourselves in a hard moment. We look backwards and begin to question every decision we made, through the lens of this new information, trying to find a reason for the pain we are in. And we get very creative. When we are in pain, we can find a way to blame ourselves for almost anything. And this is not only inaccurate in these situations, it is hurtful, and frankly unproductive.

So what do we do? When we are in pain and we are looking backwards for the reason with an unfair lens on our every decision, what can help?

We need to understand the difference between causation and correlation.

Let’s say I make a decision to drive to the grocery store. On the way I get into a terrible car accident. Did I cause this by choosing to go to the grocery store? Of course not. But we often replace correlation with causation when dealing with hard things.

Things can be happening (correlating) at the same time without causation occuring. Again why is this important to name? Because inaccurately shaming ourselves for hard things we didn’t see coming never helped anyone get through them. In fact, it does the opposite. It takes hard things and twists them into personal assaults.

Sometimes a picture is worth a thousand words, so let me leave you with this gem from the internet:

Sure, the bird is there on the railing - the bent and broken railing (correlation). But did the bird cause the bent railing (causation)? Is that even possible? Absolutely not.

If you find yourself in a surprising hard time, try practicing self kindness and self compassion (“I’m having a hard time, I am going to be gentle with myself today”), rather than trying to find the way you caused it. Yes, there are times to evaluate your decisions carefully. But, when you are hurting and you are looking for the reason backwards, judging all your decisions through this new surprising pain - pause before you make yourself the cause. Is this perhaps a case of correlation instead?

With you,

Monica

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Book news!

I am signing a contract for the rights of my book to be sold to a publisher in Brazil to be translated into Portuguese! I am so surprised and excited! I will keep you posted!